It has been impossible to avoid the Brexit discussion in the last few months. In fairness, it is probably one of the biggest ‘water cooler’ moments in recent times, so quite naturally everyone seems to have an opinion. After what was, in many people’s eyes, a shock result there was a loud clamouring of voices in the press about the terrible side effects or the amazing benefits of post-EU Britain.
A period of adjustment
Without a doubt, there has been a period of immediate adjustment for many industries. Just to take one example, a sudden change in the strength of the dollar means that the price of raw materials could well have suddenly impacted on manufacturing. However, this cuts both ways, and a dollar that buys more encourages overseas investment. It really is a complex situation. It seems to be a constant procession of swings and roundabouts which are making the future difficult, if not impossible to predict. So let’s bring this down to a more manageable level and consider it in relation to the job market at the moment.
Long-term effects
The first thing to consider is that the effects of the Brexit vote are likely to be long-term in their full impact. Bearing this in mind and placing it in the context of the current situation with vacant positions, there is one obvious conclusion, which is that a job vacancy is often a relatively short term thing (most businesses want the new employee in place as quickly as possible) where the effects of Brexit will be long term. New PM, Theresa May, recently said she had no intention of moving on the actual process of leaving the EU until 2017, so the vast majority of current vacancies will be filled before anything further really happens. Allowing for the process that will then occur, we are probably looking at hundreds of thousands of job vacancies being opened, resourced, filled, and closed before there move to leave the EU happens.
Skills shortage
We also need to remember that there is a very prominent skills shortage in many industries, and that is not going to suddenly disappear. It seems unlikely that leaving the EU will result in a large number of hitherto unknown jobseekers suddenly appearing from nowhere. All those companies with roles that require expertise, training or a healthy mix of both will still be scouring the market for the right candidates.
The real world situation
Finally, we need to look at the ‘real world’ situation before we worry too much about the one that is coming. The global situation, the national position and the ins and outs of trade deals may well be great subjects around the water cooler, but the day to day reality is where the real focus is, because when all is said and done, the big events are out of our control.
Day to day
So what is the day to day situation as we are experiencing it? Are we seeing a slowdown in available vacancies? Honestly, no. Not only has the number of vacancies stayed steady but there seems to have been no real effect on the candidates looking for new roles or the employers offering them. In fact, in June this year the job market was rising and the outlook was good. All that is not going to stop overnight.
The best advice, at least where the job market is concerned, seems to be carry on with life as usual because the actual job market itself is doing just that.